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ving Forces for Energy Demand 2010

3. Policy and Pricing Implications

Energy is essential to the economic activity that sustains and improves the

quality of life (National Petroleum Council: Raymond, 2007). As such, growth in

the use of energy is essential if billions of people living in the developing world

are to see improved living standards and as a result, quality of life. By providing

reliable and affordable energy, policy makers will help revitalize economies and

enable broad economic gains around the world. As shown in the energy demand

section, demand in non-OECD countries, has with the exception of China been

increasing more than linearly with respect to income. This shows that countries

face increasing energy intensity during their development path as they climb the

energy ladder, as shown in graph 2-3 The Energy Ladder and 2-4 The Energy

Ladder S-Curve. How energy intensity will grow is affected by a number of factors

such as geographical location, size, and climatic exposure. In addition, factors

such as industrial structure, efficiency and mass mobility solutions are significant

and are the results of explicit economic and policy choices made by countries

(Benthem & Romani, 2009). These are important factors to take into account

when building an energy policy. Further, it has been shown that energy demand

is more responsive to end-use price rather than international oil price changes.

This is because taxes, subsidies and losses from transportation and conversion

vary widely across countries and has a large impact on the end user price

(Benthem & Romani, 2009). In addition, the magnitude of demand responses to

price changes is substantial in the developing world, varying more than linearly

with price levels. This

3-1 Correlation Between International Oil Price indicates that the steeper the
end-use price increase, the
Index and Domestic End-Use Energy Price Index stronger the marginal
reduction in energy demand
Non- OECD -14 % China 19 % Malaysia 58 % which indicates a higher
Indonesia -7 % Peru degree vulnerability of
Mexico -1 % Algeria 20 % Chile 61 % developing countries to
India 6 % Pakistan increasing energy prices
Romania 10 % Colombia 33 % Thailand 68 % (Benthem & Romani, 2009).
Brazil 16 % Venezuela
Argentina 36 % Sri Lanka 76 %

41 % South Korea 77 %

46 % Philippines 83 %

OECD 93 %
US 60% - 90%
Western Europe

(Benthem & Romani, 2009)

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