Page 27 - Driving Force for Energy Demand
P. 27
ving Forces for Energy Demand 2010
4. Conclusion
In the absence of catastrophic climate change and the swift onset of fossil fuel
shortages, incomes in much of the world will continue to rise and it is likely that
the use of fossil fuels will follow suit. However, with improved technologies it is
likely that there will also be a reduction of energy and carbon intensities per
economic value. The important questions from a public policy perspective are:
How much of the warming is natural; how sure are we that it will continue; and
would continued warming be beneficial or harmful? (Bast 2008). Policymakers
need to weight the costs and benefits of the policies that they are considering to
implement to create policies that create net benefits rather than net costs. It is
not given that wholesale forced reductions in the emissions of GHG will provide
such positive effects as the extent of the effect on the environment is uncertain
while the costs to both developing and developed countries can be quite high.
Mandatory GHG emission reductions beyond the no regrets policies can produce
costs in excess of benefits under fairly realistic assumptions (Bradley; 2003) and
should therefore be under particular scrutiny.
It is clear that economic growth is likely to produce positive net benefits in
combination with policies to limit energy intensity so that policies supporting
such growth, in particular within the developing nations are highly likely to
generate positive global environmental effects. Furthermore, it is unclear if the
current renewable technologies can actually provide the abundant, affordable
and reliable supply of energy needed to power the wanted qualities of life for
people around the globe so that policies including preparing for climate change
and adaption to it are likely to be of high value in the short to medium term.
Policies that are expected to be beneficial in the long term, but with high costs
today may be more suspect as "in the long term, we're all dead" (Keynes) so the
net benefits are difficult to asses.
Posted by Etree Project Consultants Pvt Ltd only for knowledge sharing purpose. Page 27
4. Conclusion
In the absence of catastrophic climate change and the swift onset of fossil fuel
shortages, incomes in much of the world will continue to rise and it is likely that
the use of fossil fuels will follow suit. However, with improved technologies it is
likely that there will also be a reduction of energy and carbon intensities per
economic value. The important questions from a public policy perspective are:
How much of the warming is natural; how sure are we that it will continue; and
would continued warming be beneficial or harmful? (Bast 2008). Policymakers
need to weight the costs and benefits of the policies that they are considering to
implement to create policies that create net benefits rather than net costs. It is
not given that wholesale forced reductions in the emissions of GHG will provide
such positive effects as the extent of the effect on the environment is uncertain
while the costs to both developing and developed countries can be quite high.
Mandatory GHG emission reductions beyond the no regrets policies can produce
costs in excess of benefits under fairly realistic assumptions (Bradley; 2003) and
should therefore be under particular scrutiny.
It is clear that economic growth is likely to produce positive net benefits in
combination with policies to limit energy intensity so that policies supporting
such growth, in particular within the developing nations are highly likely to
generate positive global environmental effects. Furthermore, it is unclear if the
current renewable technologies can actually provide the abundant, affordable
and reliable supply of energy needed to power the wanted qualities of life for
people around the globe so that policies including preparing for climate change
and adaption to it are likely to be of high value in the short to medium term.
Policies that are expected to be beneficial in the long term, but with high costs
today may be more suspect as "in the long term, we're all dead" (Keynes) so the
net benefits are difficult to asses.
Posted by Etree Project Consultants Pvt Ltd only for knowledge sharing purpose. Page 27
